NFL Briefing

30.11.05

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 4 December, 1615 EST / 2115 GMT
Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS (US) / Sky Sports Xtra (UK)

Why it matters

It is quite possible that one of the top 10 teams in the NFL won't have a shot at reaching the Super Bowl, because it won't make the playoffs. While the National Football Conference wallows in mediocrity, with only a handful of teams worthy of playing in the post-season, the AFC is white hot with competition. Nowhere is it more intense than the AFC West, where Denver, Kansas City and San Diego are fighting it out for two places at most. Division winners progress as of right but there are only two wildcard spots for the entire conference and both Pittsburgh and Jacksonville are also in the running for those.

Denver has a wobble last week, needing overtime to win on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, but are two games clear atop the division. They will be aware the playoff place is not in the bag yet but this match, and the New Year's Eve trip to San Diego, are the only real obstacles to a strong finish.

Kansas City have a brutal run-in with visits to Dallas and the Giants and must either beat both Denver this Sunday and the Chargers (with whom they currently share a 7-4 record) in three weeks' time, or let other teams decide whether or not the Chiefs are playing in the second week of January.

Team talking points

These sides have met once already this season, and it wasn't pretty. Kansas City scored a touchdown with two minutes remaining to save some semblance of pride but they still went down 30-10 at the tongue-twistingly-named Invesco Field at Mile High. What has changed since? The Chiefs' defense has continued to improve, from the miserable outfit of two years ago to a side ranked fifth in the league against the run. They also love to send extra defenders to blitz opposing quarterbacks, making a mess of the defending champion New England Patriots last weekend.

The biggest change for the Chiefs is the loss of star running back Priest Holmes for the season, with potentially career-ending head and neck problems, and the seamless transition to Larry Johnson. Holmes had been under par all season, and was easily held by the Broncos last time, but Johnson has run for 462 yards in three games since Holmes went on the injured reserve list. That includes a Chiefs record 211 against Houston a fortnight ago. Johnson has benefited from the return of tackle Willie Roaf (all 320lb of him) from hamstring trouble.

Denver, if anything, have got better since that first meeting, but quarterback Jake Plummer proved on Thanksgiving that his new-look, high-percentage persona can be rattled by a defense that pressures mercilessly. Hard-hitting runner Tatum Bell is still struggling with a chest injury, although he has always shared time with Mike Anderson and back-up Ron Dayne also deputised well against the Cowboys, as most rushers do behind Denver's under-sized, mobile offensive line.

Star players

Tony Gonzalez #88, TE, Kansas City
The most thrown-to tight end in the league so far this season must have been licking his lips after watching Denver's game in Dallas, after his Cowboys counterpart Jason Witten caught nine passes against a Broncos defense paying plenty of attention to the run. The same is likely to be true this week for Gonzalez, one of a new generation of tight ends who matches size (250lb) with speed and tends to be QB Trent Green's primary target even when the pressure isn't on.

Champ Bailey, #24, CB, Denver
Denver regarded Bailey so highly they traded away star running back Clinton Portis to the Redskins to get hold of him. Until week four of this season, Bailey was the only cornerback to have started every regular season game for his team since arriving in the NFL but the streak ended at 99 when he began to experience hamstring trouble. Since then he has blown hot and cold but last week he snatched a pass from Cowboys QB Drew Bledsoe and returned it 65 yards for a score. Bailey is regarded as a "cover corner", who prevents his receiver from getting open rather than muscling opponents off the ball, but with one side of the field shut off, Kansas City's passing game will have to work extra hard.

What to look for
Running backs will slug it out with defenders for much of the day, and neither is likely to come out on top. It is in the passing game that both of these defenses are suspect and it is up to Trent Green and Jake Plummer to spot those weaknesses and take advantage. Expect the occasional deep pass to open up this rushing-dominated game, with the team that gets away with it most the winner.

Denver kicker Jason Elam, who won last week's match with a chip shot in overtime, was listed on early injury reports as having a troublesome calf. If he can't kick at all, the Broncos are likely to bring someone else in, but this may just reduce the range of a kicker who shares the record for the longest successful attempt ever, a massive 63 yards.

Tip
Denver have consistency and confidence on their side, so they should prevail, if battered and bruised, 21-17.
(Season so far 4-2)

Interesting trivia

Kansas City can lay claim to the strongest British connections in the NFL, in kicker Lawrence Tynes and assistant head coach Al Saunders.

Tynes was born in Greenock, west of Glasgow, and his maternal grandmother still lives there, although he and his parents moved to Florida when his father's US Navy posting ended. Educated at Troy State University in Alabama, Tynes spent 2002 with the Scottish Claymores of NFL Europe then had two seasons in the Canadian Football League with the Ottawa Renegades before beating out NFL legend Morten Andersen for the job of Chief kicker in 2004.

London-born Saunders emigrated with his family and naturalised as a US citizen at the age of 13 in 1960. He became one of only four foreign-born head coaches in NFL history when he took the helm of the San Diego Chargers in 1986, was the offensive co-ordinator of the Super Bowl-winning St Louis Rams' "greatest show on turf" in 2000 and is now in his second spell in Kansas City.

In other trivial matters, Kansas City, which is confusingly just over the state line in Missouri, is said to have more fountains than any city except Rome and more boulevards than any city except Paris. And you thought this was just football, football, football.

NFLBriefing.com


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27.11.05

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Monday, 28 November, 2100 EST / 0200 GMT
RCA Dome
TV: ABC (US) / Five (UK)

Why it matters

If it's tough staying up until the end of Monday Night Football in the US, it's almost impossible over the Atlantic, but this game is perhaps the best excuse this season for burning the candle at one end or the other.

At their best, the Steelers are at least the second-best team in the league. Unfortunately they have been sub-par of late, with injuries affecting their two biggest assets: the backfield pairing of Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis plus quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. They couldn't even get past the woeful Baltimore Ravens last weekend and unless they spark a revival soon the outstanding potential they showed in the early part of the season will go to waste.

Parker and Bettis have both missed playing time but it was the absence of Rothlisberger, who is back this week after a four-week break to undergo knee surgery, that has seen the Steelers a shadow of their former selves. Stand-in Charlie Batch injured his hand in his first game, and third-choice Tommy Maddox had "For Sale" signs left in his front yard after a disappointing first match at the helm. Pittsburgh have attempted to run 332 times so far this season (only three teams have done it more often). But, despite the fact he has only lost one regular season game in his two-year career so far, Rothlisberger has been underrated as the glue that holds the offense together. Without him in the line-up, opponents can defend the run and let the passing game self-destruct. With him, the Steelers can afford to plug away with the run, knowing Big Ben will get them out of trouble with his accurate passing on third down.

Who is the best team in the league? If the Colts win this match there will be no doubt. Peyton Manning is at the helm of an offense that just seems to get better by the week. Proof of its versatility was in the success of tight end Dallas Clarke, who caught six passes for 125 yards in the win over Cincinnati last weekend. When Manning's biggest weapons, including the running of Edgerrin James, are nullified, he pulls another one from inside his coat.

The pressure keeps mounting on the Colts, though, as they bid to become just the 11th team in NFL history, and the first since the Denver Broncos in 1998, to open a season with 11 consecutive wins. The term "perfect season" is used more heavily as the weeks go on. Their run-in with the Bengals exposed holes in the defense that no one knew existed, and Pittsburgh will be doing all they can to exploit the same holes.

Star players

Dwight Freeney, #93, DE, Colts
The whirling dervish at end is the public face of the Indianapolis defense, which this year is finally rating a mention alongside Manning's offensive all-stars. Undersized for a lineman, he is used sparingly but can be devastating against heavy-footed opponents, putting pressure on any quarterback who isn't mobile enough to evade the rush. So far this season he has seven sacks, but he is just as valuable in attracting double-teaming from opponents, freeing up space for team-mates, and in forcing star-struck opponents into making mistakes and conceding penalties.

Willie Parker, #39, RB, Steelers
"Fast Willie" was not rated good enough to start in college at North Carolina, and the Steelers were already nicely settled in the backfield before he was signed as an undrafted free agent. Parker has been hobbled by an ankle injury of late but if he is back at full speed he could exploit the weakness the Colts blatantly have against speed through the middle of their defensive line. His effectiveness could be improved on the artificial turf of the RCA Dome, with the firmer footing allowing him to change direction more easily.

What to look for

A lot rests on how quickly Roethlisberger finds his rhythm. If he is able to complete passes under pressure early, there will be more space for the running game and the Steelers will be able to build up a head of steam to wear down those smaller defenders. If his mobility is restricted because of the recent surgery, Pittsburgh could take a while to click, by which time Manning could already have taken a lead.

Pittsburgh are likely to try to present Manning with some confusing defensive arrangements to limit the effectiveness of the no-huddle offense (he calls the play at the line of scrimmage once he has seen what he is up against). Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau usually favours sending linebackers on blitzes, but here he is more likely to mix up coverage patterns so Manning does not know who he should be throwing to. The heavily-dreadlocked Troy Polamalu, who is nominally a safety but lines up all over the field, is likely to figure large.

Tip

If the Steelers were at their best, they would be a good bet to upset the Colts' quest for perfection but Roethlisberger may take a while to find his stride and Indy will win it 31-16.

Interesting trivia

Steelers coach Bill Cowher has never lost a game to Indianapolis in six attempts.

Colts coach Tony Dungy played two seasons as safety with the Steelers, had nine interceptions in 30 matches and took part in the Super Bowl XIII victory over Dallas.

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