NFL Briefing

20.1.06

Panthers at Seahawks - What to look for

Don't look for what has been happening on offense all year, because it is too predictable and two of the league's best defenses will be up to the task.

Carolina may continue to try and get the ball to receiver Steve Smith as often as possible, especially with running back DeShaun Foster out, but if QB Jake Delhomme tries to throw quick passes to him in the flat, he is likely to be picked off because there are only so many times you can run a single play. If he tries to use Smith over the middle, the receiver is likely to have the lights turned out by rookie sensation Lofa Tatupu, a linebacker with amazing speed to go with his toughness. Instead of Smith, third-choice back Nick Goings could impress, with a direct running style, and plenty of holes being created by his blockers.

Seattle didn't even think about Alexander early in last weekend's win over Washington, QB Matt Hasselbeck instead going on the attack from the off with his receivers, speedster Darrell Jackson and possession man Joe Jurevicius likely to feature heavily. Hasselbeck is tough and confident so, even if one of the NFL's most reliable offensive lines can't hold off one of the NFL's most aggressive defensive fronts all the time, their passer may still be able to get his pass off unhindered. If they have established the pass, the Hawks can then feature Alexander, who may take a while to find his groove after being knocked out of the Redskins game just five minutes in and is going against a team who nullified 1,000-yard rushers Tiki Barber and Thomas Jones to minimal effectiveness over the last two weeks.

With Hasselback firing their 12th man baying, Seattle will go to their first Super Bowl with a 31-21 victory.

NFLBriefing.com

19.1.06

Steelers at Broncos - What to look for

This will be a toe-to-toe battle in the trenches with rushing offense pitted against aggressive defense, but the quarterbacks may hold the key. Both sides will look to establish the run early and if Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell of Denver, Willie Parker or Jerome Bettis of Pittsburgh gets on a roll his team will stick with him all the way. More likely, though, there will be a quaggy stalemate, with just the occasional dash to daylight.

Come third down, the pressure will be on Ben Roethlisburger or Jake Plummer to bail their running games out, with short passes. They will have to do it against masses of defensive pressure. They don't call the Steelers "Blitzburgh" for nothing, and they proved their reputation with five sacks of Colts trigger man Peyton Manning next week. Plummer is a more mobile QB, who favours the "waggle" play, faking the run in one direction then rolling out away from his offensive line with a sole receiver to throw to, so Pitt may think about sitting back in blanket coverage more and forcing him into throwing errors. Roethlisburger is at his best early in the count, and coach Bill Cowher has taken some pressure off him this year with more throws on first and second downs. On third he is more likely to look to tight end Heath Miller. He is big enough to stand up to defenders but not the most agile of passers.

If Plummer gets a slight edge over Roethlisburger, though, Pittsburgh's pass defense is better, especially the backfield. Denver have stars like John Lynch at free safety and Champ Bailey at corner but they ranked 29th in the league in pass defense during the regular season, in part because of their tendency to look for the glamourous interception rather than the percentage play. Here Pittsburgh are ideally equipped to take advantage, using a gadget play like the flea-flicker (where the QB has the ball pitched back to him after handing off to a back, with the defense biting on the run, and throws deep) or an option pass for receiver Antwaan Randle El, a college QB who is never far from the action.

Only New England in 1985 have reached the Super Bowl after three road wins. Pittsburgh are about to follow them all the way, with a 28-24 victory on a last-gasp play, if your heart can take it for another week.
(Season so far 13-6; playoffs 6-2)

NFLBriefing.com

18.1.06

Panthers at Seahawks - Talking points

NFC Championship Game
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Sunday, 22 January
1830 EST on Fox / 2330 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra


Two unfashionable teams from this year's unfashionable conference line up to fight for a place in the 50th NFL fashion show in Detroit. This game is likely to be just as close as the one that precedes it, if lacking a little of the glamour.

"Do You Know His Name?" Sports Illustrated asked last month with a photo of running back Shaun Alexander, the first time Seattle have featured on the front cover of America's most famous magazine. You should do by now as Alexander was the NFL's leading rusher this season and was voted league MVP, but that has been the theme all year as the Seahawks broke out of the anonymity of the Pacific North West to take aim for their first ever Super Bowl place. Their last Championship Game appearance was back in 1984, when they were in the AFC and lost to Oakland. If one player has made more of a role in the Hawks going undefeated at home for the second time in three seasons it has been the 12th man, the fans who have been raucous throughout the year and thoroughly deserve the extra games after an 11-year wait.

Alexander may not have known his own name last Saturday, as he suffered concussion early in the victory over Washington, but he has been passed fit to play and will again be a massive factor, although the passing game, with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm, has stepped up since key receivers returned from injury. And Alexander's name might adorn the back of another jersey next year as his contract expires and he is eligible for free agency. Minnesota are just one of the teams rumoured to be chasing the 28-year-old, who probably has one good contract left in him.

The Panthers, who didn't know until the last week of the regular season they they would have a game the following week, are bidding for an NFL record fifth successive playoff win on an opponent's home turf, dating back to their Super Bowl season two years ago. Last year they missed out because of injuries, and this year the same crisis has just crept up on them as running back DeShawn Foster broke his leg in last weekend's victory in Chicago. Carolina's first-choice back Stephen Davis injured his knee mid-season, so Nick Goings gets the nod this week.

With Steve Smith the most productive receiver in the league and a bunch of hard-hitting, trash talking defenders, quarterback Jake Delhomme gets lost in the mix, but his ability to step up in key games is a massive factor in the Panthers' post-season success. In five years in the NFL, including one with New Orleans in 1999 before he spent two years in Europe, Delhomme has a QB rating of 88.1 from 54 regular-season games, with 213.8 yards per game. and 24 touchdowns. In six playoff games he has a rating of 108.4, an average production of 241 yards and 10 TDs.

NFLBriefing.com

17.1.06

Steelers at Broncos - Talking points

AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Invesco Field at Mile High
Sunday, 22 January
1500 EST on Fox / 2000 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra


Before this season, the last playoff game the Broncos had won was the 1998 Super Bowl, the last game of legendary quarterback John Elway's career. Coach Mike Shanahan, whose arrival in Denver sparked an Indian summer for Elway, was beginning to grow tired with the continual questioning over what the team were doing wrong as they suffered heavy defeats to the Colts in the opening playoff round in the last two years. This season, the Colts are out of the way, and the Broncos' sights are clearly on a trip to Detroit for Super Bowl XL.

They looked dire in the first week of the season but have not looked back after the run of nine victories in the 10 games that followed, finishing the regular season with the second-most successful running game in the league (behind Atlanta), producing an average of 158.7 yards per game. Had Tatum Bell avoided injury and managed 79 more, the Broncs would have been the only side able to boast two 1,000-yard rushers this year. Mike Anderson ran for 1,014 as just the latest unheralded back to enjoy success in Denver. The Broncos offensive line enjoy their low profile - they have refused to give media interviews for years - but their speed and Shanahan's schemes mean any runner can be successful.

Anderson's success has helped make fans forget one of the most controversial acts of the Shanahan regime, trading top rusher Clinton Portis to the Redskins two years ago. The player Denver traded for, corner Champ Bailey, has also fulfilled his promise after a struggling start, his 100-yard return of a Tom Brady interception icing victory over New England last weekend.

Pittsburgh, one of the most successful teams of the modern era, just don't do playoff races like this. In the last 35 years, they have reached the AFC Championship Game 12 times (winning five) but have only managed three playoff victories – in any round – away from home. In 12 seasons under coach Bill Cowher, with whom they have reached this stage six times but won just once, they had never been victorious on the road in the playoffs. This season, by contrast, has ended with a barnstorming tour across the USA, with wins in Minneapolis and Cleveland as part of a four-game streak that saw them scrape into the post-season by the skins of their teeth, then successful playoff visits to Cincinnati and, in one of the most rollercoaster finishes of all time, Indianapolis.

Quarterback Ben Roethisburger's game-saving tackle on Colt Nick Harper has been dubbed "The Immaculate Tackle", a more prosaic version of "The Immaculate Reception" by Franco Harris in 1972, and the season now has a feel of destiny about it. They were rated one of the best sides in the league until Roethisburger's mid-season knee injury, which saw the team struggle even when he returned from surgery. In by far the stronger conference, they could have been left at home for January, but their season rumbles on.

With it rumbles the career of Jerome Bettis, the 255lb (ish) running back whose 13th season is likely to be his last. Bettis, who is still as likely to dance around a defender as bulldoze him into the turf, is likely to be voted into the Hall of Fame at the first ballot in five years time but his career would have been remembered for a goal-line fumble against the Colts were it not for Roethisburger's grasping tackle and a missed Colts field goal. Bettis has never been to a Super Bowl before but is now just a game away from retiring on the ultimate stage.

What the fans' blogs say

According to Thin Air, Pittsburgh are just like Denver in that they "don't get no respect".

The Steelers are very much like the Broncos. Their dedication to the running game is arguably as devout as is the Broncos. They have been written off by the media just like the Broncos, and they have an “us against the world” attitude just like the Broncos. These are two teams who have been overlooked almost completely. It’s karmic justice that they’re both still alive.


One for the Thumb compares the showing by Pittsburgh's rookie quarterback at this time last season to his maturing showing against Indianapolis.

Before our very eyes we are all watching Ben Roethlisberger take over the football world. He has gone from a nervous rookie in the playoffs, to a savvy veteran who realizes when to throw in away and when to take a sack. He has made the Steelers offense very effective, and his passes over the past few weeks have been amazing. Let’s hope he takes that same fire with him to Denver this weekend to face the Broncos.


NFLBriefing.com

16.1.06

Division playoffs - verdict

Panthers 29-21 Bears

How do you stop Steve Smith? Normally a star receiver with little support can be taken out of the game by double-coverage. Smith caught a pass in double coverage, wrestling the ball of Charles Tillman at the one-yard line to set up the second score. The first score was his, a 58-yard-duking dash of the second play from scrimmage, and there was more as he beat a stumbling defender for a 39-yard touchdown. His 218 yards are a career best and the fourth-highest ever in the playoffs - 22 short of the record. It helped that Chicago were also giving respect early on to the Carolina running game, even though DeShaun Foster and Nick Goings averaged just 3.4 yards per play, but Smith combined speed, physicality and outstanding moves to evade the stingiest defense in the league.

The Bears did well to keep up, given their lack of offense for much of the season. Quarterback Rex Grossman struggled early but realised he could connect with receivers on crossing routes and his figures had recovered by game's end. Offensive co-ordinator Ron Turner must take some criticism, though, for not using running back Thomas Jones more in key situations. He had 80 yards on 20 touches but showed the potential to break free on several occasions and could have eased the pressure on the inexperienced Grossman.

Grossman, or back-up Kyle Orton, will come back more experienced next year older and wiser and the Bears have outstanding foundations elsewhere in their receiving corps, rushing game and defense. Coach of the year Lovie Smith knows this isn't just a one-year project.

Carolina are without Foster, who broke his ankle, as they prepare to visit Seattle next weekend, but with Smith in the side and QB Jae Delhomme in playoff form, they know they can compete with anyone.

Steelers 21-18 Colts

Who was going to be the villain in this game for the ages? Would it be referee Pete Morelli, for messing up a TV replay challenge and ruling that Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu had not made an interception with five minutes left to seal the game? What about Jerome Bettis for coughing up the ball on what could have been the last carry of his storied career? In the end it was Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt, who missed at home for the first time this year, shanking a 46-yard attempt very wide right.

That Vanderjagt even had a chance to send the game into overtime is down to the Colts' ability to strike from any distance at any time. Despite a woeful first half, when they showed all the rust accumulated in the month since they last played a meaningful game, quarterback Peyton Manning was key in two heart-stopping scores in the final quarter as, first, tight end Dallas Clark performed a 50-yard catch-and-run, then three receivers combined for 53 yards in three plays before Edgerrin James plunged in from three yards out.

In the first half, Manning looked a shadow of his usual self, as Pittsburgh defensive coach Dick LeBeau threw the full repertoire at him. "Blitzburgh" started the game with just two down-linemen, then threw linebackers from all angles, faking ten dropping back, stacking up on one corner or delaying until the play developed before barrelling through. The Steelers also did well to nullify the contributions of Marvin Harrison - allowing him just three catches - and James, whose 51 yards came mainly in a 96-yard drive before the half. Had they punched the ball in after that, Indy could well have turned the game with James. As it was, they were still playing catch-up and forced to rely on a cranky passing game instead.

Pittsburgh's offensive scheming was excellent, utilising tight formations, with just one or two receivers, offering a "max protect" formation with two tight ends. They could either punch the ball through the middle or - more effectively - find holes in the pass coverage just behind the confused linebackers. Most people were expecting a show-down between the Patriots and the Colts at the RCA Dome. Instead, it's a Steeler visit to Denver, pitting the two most successful running games in the league. Pittsburgh become the first number six seed to advance this far in the playoffs.

Meanwhile the Colts must act fast to make sure their bubble doesn't burst. This was the year they had to fulfil their potential. Although Manning and Harrison are tied up in long-term contracts, James becomes a free agent after this season and a host of second-rung players, like receiver Reggie Wayne, are likely to move on to take larger roles elsewhere. There were rumours even before the game that coach Tony Dungy would step down, and those are likely grow after this wild defeat. Wow.

Broncos 27-13 Patriots

The first ever NFL "threepeat" will have to wait at least another three years to come to fruition after New England committed some uncharacteristic errors in their first playoff loss since 3 January 1999. Tom Brady was intercepted twice, Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk fumbled and Adam Vinatieri, symbol of the Patriots dominance over the last five years, missed a field goal attempt from 43 yards out at the start of the fourth quarter. Perhaps the Pats were just getting their due after a season of over-achieving. Brady has had to carry the team on his back all season and this game was no different as running back Corey Dillon was very poor - take his two longest runs away and he got 29 yards on 11 attempts.

Denver certainly weren't great. Mike Anderson confounded the early injury report to take the lead in the ground game, which meant there was less of an onus on Jake Plummer, who was intercepted in the second quarter. Pittsburgh will have reason to feel confident going into next Sunday's Championship matchup at Mile High.

New England get a chance to overcome their lengthy injury list and don't expect them to slip off the boil. With Belichick still scheming and personel man Scott Pioli signed up to a new contract the Pats will tinker slightly, maybe bring in a new back, and start thinking about winning four Super Bowls in six.

Seahawks 20-10 Redskins

The only player with a feeling of deja-vu after this game was likely to be running back Shaun Alexander, suffering the side effects of concussion, as Seattle gained some revenge for their early-season defeat by Washington and also found a way to win without NFL Most Valuable Player Alexander. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck stepped up with 215 yards, a passing and a rushing touchdown, displaying toughness, mobility and bloody-mindedness in making plays successful. He was protected well by his offensive line, although Washington spent more time sitting back in coverage rather than applying pressure, as has been their hugely successful modus operandi over the last few weeks, and they continued to fall for play action fakes even with Alexander on the sideline and replacement Maurice Morris pretty ineffective.

The real hero, though, in securing the first ever NFL Championshop game appearance for Seattle was the Seahawks defense, who hit hard in the defensive backfield, marauded at linebacker and offered star Redskin rusher Clinton Portis just 41 yards on the ground. Middle 'backer Lofa Tatupu is a star already, just 17 games into his professional career, as he performs the crucial role of signal calling and had outstanding speed for a man his size.

On early reports, Alexander will be OK for the visit of Carolina next Sunday. Concussion can be very unpredictable but at least the Hawks know they can compete without their cornerstone.

Washington have managed to turn another mediocre season into a success thanks to their late run, but quarterback Mark Brunell looks like the weakest link as his skills diminish with age and injury. They either need Patrick Ramsay, who started the season before injury, to step up or should look to spend owner Dan Snyder's millions on a replacement. However, defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams has signed a new contract and his unit will continue to keep them close in games they deserve to lose.

NFLBriefing.com