Divisional playoffs – Panthers at Bears

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Sunday, 15 January
1630 EST on Fox / 2130 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra

There hasn't been a scoreless tie in the NFL since 1943 but this game has to be one of the best candidates in years.

It is considered heresy to compare any defense to that of the 1985 Chicago Bears, but the Super Bowl Shufflers might just concede that this year's Bears D is up there with them. Led by linebacker Brian Urlacher, who made 98 solo tackles this year, the Bears allowed just 12.6 points per game - that's less than two touchdowns. If fifth place are Carolina, allowing 16.2. An outstanding linebacker corps has been inspired by the death of assistant coach Sam Mills last April, after a two-year battle with cancer. The entire team wears the #51, which Mills wore with the Saints and the Panthers, on the backs of their helmets. End Julius Peppers anchors a defensive line that harries quarterbacks without mercy.

These are two brilliant defenses, now what about the offenses? For Chicago, that's an easy answer: they don't have very much of one. Quarterback Rex Grossman has struggled with ankle trouble for much of the year and his replacement, rookie Kyle Orton, had the distinction of being ranked the worst passer in the entire league. Thomas Jones carried the running game but is no match for a side that neutered Giants ace Tiki Barber last weekend.

Carolina are at least two-dimensional, behind Steve Smith, the leading receiver in the league, and a rushing game of DeShaun Foster and Nick Goings, a surprise success against New York with a direct, explosive style. They will find a way to get Smith into the game even if QB Jake Delhomme is being blitzed as hard as he was in the first meeting between these two sides, when he was sacked eight times.

That November meeting brought a 13-3 victory for Chicago but Carolina will find a way to sneak past the Bears this time, in a low-scoring classic, 14-9.

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Divisional playoffs – Steelers at Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
RCA Dome
Sunday, 15 January
1300 EST on CBS / 1800 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra

Remember the Indianapolis Colts? They're the team who won 13 consecutive games, sweeping all before them on their way to the AFC South title, before a few niggling injuries, nothing else to play for and the tragic death of coach Tony Dungy's son combined for two defeats to finish the regular season for one of the most impressive teams ever. The Pittsburgh Steelers? They're the guys who beat Cincinnati last week in a contest far closer than the final 31-17 score line showed, even though Bengals QB Carson Palmer was injured on his second play from scrimmage.

The Colts' offense may not have set any season records (as they did last year when Peyton Manning threw for 49 touchdowns) but they blazed through the the first three-and-a-half months of the season. Check out these points totals against playoff-standard opposition: New England 40, Cincinnati 45, Jacksonville 26 and Pittsburgh 26. This season there were chants of "D-Fense" in Indy, too, as two or three key additions made an undersized platoon the second-best in the country.

Pittsburgh were beaten 26-7 on Monday night in week 12, in the middle of a three-game losing streak for the Steelers as quarterback Ben Roethisburger returned from knee surgery. One play will stick in Steeler minds as they make a return visit to the RCA Dome, the 80-yard scoring strike from Manning to Marvin Harrison from the Colts' first play. Indianapolis have the chance to score at any time from anywhere on the field and, although Manning and Harrison often feature, there are plenty of players who can do the damage. The Pittsburgh D could easily hold Edgerrin James to a handful of yards on the ground but Manning must be respected at all times. As with Cincinnati last weekend, if the Steelers cover two receivers heavily, a third will pop up to take the glory.

The Steeler offense is no pushover, though. Their ground game was in the top five in terms of yards gained during the regular season, partly because they handed the ball off to a back 57% of the time, more than any other side. If Willie Parker doesn't break for space around the outside (and he may struggle against the equally-speedy Colts), Jerome "The Bus" Bettis will bludgeon yards over the tackles. The trouble for a run-dominated team is keeping pace with Manning's high-octane attack. The longer the game stays close, the more chance Pittsburgh have of sneaking a win. Watch, in the later stages for a "gadget play", a trick probably involving receiver Antwaan Randle El, a college quarterback who could run or pass, or run then pass, out of the backfield.

Having had, in effect, three weeks off the Colts may be slow out of the blocks but that big-play ability will not take long to click. At some point the Steelers will be taken out by a lightning strike, going down 35-21.

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Divisional playoffs – Patriots at Broncos

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Invesco Field at Mile High
Saturday, 14 January
2000 EST on CBS / 0100 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra

As with every game in thie divisional round, the Broncos and Patriots have faced each other already this season, with Denver coming out on top 28-20 at home in week six. What you make of that result is your choice. Do you look at Denver taking a 25-point lead or Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leading a fourth-quarter comeback that was a completion away from at least forcing overtime? Do you pay attention to Broncs QB Jake Plummer throwing for 262 yards or note throws of 72 and 55 yards and put it down to blown defensive coverage by an beaten-up Patriots defense?

What is for sure is New England are not the same team that showed up in the Mile High City three months ago. Injuries ravaged the Pats for much of the season, which only really picked up in the final month, when a four-game winning streak clinched the division and revived the "threepeat" buzz that hadn't been heard since pre-season. Defensive end Richard Seymour returned to action, Asante Samuel stepped up at cornerback and Tedy Bruschi rode a wave of emotion to return from heart surgery after suffering a minor stroke after last season's Pro Bowl. Bruschi missed last weekend's win over Jacksonville (although Machiavellian coach Bill Belichick had him suited up on the sidelines) with a calf injury, and his return could be crucial if New England are to shut down the second-best rushing offense in the league this year. An injury to running-back Corey Dillon also leaves the offense pushed into a corner, but they have so many facets there is always a way out of trouble. Brady could use screens to his backs, short passes to the tight ends or go for broke to his big-play receiver Deion Branch.

Denver have enjoyed a week off after taking the second seed in the AFC but injuries have still taken their toll as Mike Anderson, who rushed for 1,014 yards this season, is out with ankle trouble. Fortunately Tatum Bell, who rushed for 921, is still there and could play a central role. The passing game was dependable this season, its seven interceptions the second-lowest in the league, leading to plaudits for Plummer. Jake the Snake was not always so parsimonious, though, and his gambling streak will come out if the running game is taken away from him.

Belichick has only had a single week to work on the game plan, but it doesn't take the Einstein of the coaching world to work out Plummer is one weak link. Denver's pass defense is the other, which is lucky with Dillon hobbling New England to win it 27-21, perhaps with another late Brady drive.

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Divisional playoffs - Redskins at Seahawks

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Saturday, 14 January
1630 EST on Fox / 2130 GMT on Sky Sports Xtra

Seattle looked like another promising season was going down the pan on 2 October, when they lost 20-17 in Washington to leave their record at 2-2, but after that game everything just came right as they won 11 successive games in posting a team-best 13-3 record. That victory saw Washington spurt to a 3-0 record but after that they ran hot and cold, looking well out of the playoff picture until December, when a run of five successive victories handed coach Joe Gibbs his 10th post-season appearance.

The Seahawks stumbled upon a winning formula when starting receivers Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram were injured against the Redskins, forcing them to use veteran Joe Jurevicius - who responded with 694 yards - and running back Shaun Alexander, who clinched the NFL rushing title with a massive 1,880 yards on the ground. Washington's defense is one of the few that could hold Alexander but, with Jackson back, the Hawks have a deep threat who can stop them over-committing to stop the run, and Jurevicius will continue to be vital in converting third downs with the pressure on. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is not the most talented in the league but his toughness breeds confidence to hold onto the ball for an extra second, perhaps withstand a tackle and complete key plays.

Washington have ridden their luck in the last couple of weeks, as their offense has stalled. Injuries have slowed QB Mark Brunell and leading rusher Clinton Portis, whose improved form was the biggest factor behind that last-season push. For the whole second half of the season, opposing teams have double-teamed receiver Santana Moss. Brunell initially went to H-back Chris Cooley, but his knee trouble seems to have upset his timing in the short-passing game.

Washington's defense is bound to force the odd error, but Seattle are too self-assured to trip up and should come out on top 24-7.
(Season so far 11-4; playoffs 4-0)

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Wildcard week - Verdict

Bengals 17-31 Pittsburgh

Plenty of teams have their seasons ruined by injuries but none quite so publicly as the Bengals did when Carson Palmer was carried from the field with less than four minutes gone in the game. Replacement Jon Kitna took his place admirably, doing the sort of thing that back-up quarterbacks are usually unable to do, running the no-huddle offense and finding his rhythm in a short passing game immediately. Without Palmer's long-ball threat, though, Pittsburgh were able to adjust by the second half and gain three of their four sacks because of blanket coverage.

Pittsburgh's offense doesn't change - it runs, runs then runs some more, trying to take the pressure off Ben Roethlisburger by third down. Few defenses can withstand that sort of grinding game, especially when the Jerome Bettis farewell tour revved up in the second half, and they looked increasingly tired as the game went on.

Pittsburgh have some worries as they prepare to travel to Indianapolis, of which more on Thursday, but if Cincinnati keep going at this pace they will be in the Super Bowl in the next two years. It is impossible to double-cover both their stand-out receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson, without leaving someone else open, like Chris Henry for Palmer's only pass or Kevin Walter, who took over from Henry when he was injured and caught five passes across the middle. A young defense was worn down but time, and the experience of blowing a 10-point lead and being sent home early, will harden them for the future.

Giants 0-23 Panthers

As the Giants' all-1980s corps of Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks and Harry Carson looked on from the sidelines, the Panthers gave a lesson in linebacking to the current New York crop - who were decimated by injury - to inflict the first shutout of a home team in the playoffs for 25 years.

The visiting front seven plugged gaps before Tiki Barber even thought about running through them - his 41 yards for the game were the fewest of his outstanding season. Given more opportunities he may have broken one outside, but the home offense spent just 17mins 15secs on the field, and the resulting pressure built on an increasingly-bewildered Eli Manning until he tossed up three interceptions while trying to force passes.

If the Carolina defense keeps this up next Sunday, and Chicago live up to their reputation, they could be trying to split a scoreless tie in overtime.

DeShaun Foster must be one of the ugliest runners to top 150 yards in the history of the NFL post-season but he pushed, span and fell thoughout the game, beating the first tackle then taking advantage of the space available behind it. Steve Smith was double-teamed for much of the contest but Carolina found enough ways to give him the ball - including short screen passes and his end-around for a touchdown - to retain space for the running game.

Patriots 28-3 Jaguars

In the modern era, teams are not supposed to reach the post-season three years in a row, let alone set a new record with 10 successive post-season victories, but New England showed once again that they are not any ordinary team. Credit the bend-but-don't break defense, who allowed 292 yards but never let the Jaguars cross the goal line, or the Pats offensive line, which allowed quarterback Tom Brady space to weave his magic against one of the strongest defensive front fours in the game (the four sacks coming mainly because of good coverage rather than pressure).

Perhaps if they had retained David Garrard at quarterback, rather than rushing Byron Leftwich in for the playoffs, Jacksonville would have been able to keep New England on their toes. Running back Fred Taylor struggled early but could have been given more opportunity to look for space in the middle, where the Patriots have had some difficulty this year. With Leftwich immobile because of his ankle injury, the Jags were one-dimensional, and the short-passing game was easily contained.

Redskins 17-10 Buccaneers

If you switched on the TV 15 minutes late, you would have no idea why the Redskins progressed to the divisional playoff round but, just as in the final regular-season win over Philadelphia, turnovers played a massive part, and turnovers don't just happen by chance. When an aggressive defense leaves a side no room to make mistakes, and capitalises on any tiny slip, fumbles and interceptions are going to come. Phil Simms was caught out trying to make an early impression then Cadillac Williams had the ball knocked from his grasp and suddenly Tampa Bay were in a 14-0 hole they could not climb out of.

The Redskins kept the pressure on, offering few chances for Williams on the ground or deep-threat receiver Joey Galloway, but the Buccs were similarly impressive, with Santana Moss kept to two catches. Tampa Bay were the better offense because they established a short-passing game, compared to a rag-tag showing by the Skins that produced 120 yards - the fewest in NFL history for a winning team in a post-season game. Chris Simms showed he is fit to follow in father Phil's footsteps, and not just in the commentary booth, and did everything he could to overcome the deficit, but he has a long winter to dwell on Edell Shepherd's late drop in the endzone, while Washington get at least - and probably only - one more game.

This game also marked a last appearance for the ESPN Sunday Night crew of Joe Theisman, Mike Patrick and Paul Maguire. They provided a fitting epitaph with ill-informed outrage following Sean Taylor's ejection, followed by a complete about-turn when they were informed the penalty was for spitting. Theisman will reappear on the newly-packaged Monday Night Football on ESPN in 2007, hopefully kept in check by Al Michaels.

NFLBriefing.com