Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 11 December, 1300 EST / 1800 GMT
Alltel Stadium
TV: CBS (US) / Sky Sports Xtra (UK)
Why it matters
This could be the Colts' last meaningful game until 14 January, but the Jaguars won't provide them with the sort of easy victory most of their schedule has offered so far. Indianapolis just need a win here (it would be their 13th straight this season) to secure a first round bye and home field advantage as far as the AFC Championship game.
However, AFC South cohabitants Jacksonville also have their eyes on the playoffs and, in a packed race for the two wildcard places for best runners-up, every victory counts, even though they face far easier opposition than this in the final three weeks of the season.
These two sides met for the first time this season in September, the Colts winning a bad-tempered encounter 10-3. That game did as much as any other to build the reputation of the Indy defense, for years the poor relations to the firework-filled offensive machine. They are second in the list of fewest points conceded this year with 162, at a miserly average of 13.5 per game. Quarterback Peyton Manning failed to fire in that match, but has returned to his best since. In the last nine games, the Colts have averaged 35.4 points.
Jacksonville, though, still possess one of the league's best defenses, currently ranked fifth in the league for least yards conceded, with their pass defense still a speciality. Unfortunately, they have been forced to adjust to a new trigger man after Byron Leftwich was ruled out for a month with an ankle injury. Back-up David Garrard led them to victory over lowly Cleveland last week and has performed ably while deputising in the past. He is a better runner than Leftwich and has a strong arm but can struggle for accuracy, which makes him more liable to mistakes.
Team talking points
"I know Archie Manning and met Peyton when he was just a little guy," former Miami Dolphin Larry Csonka told Sports Illustrated recently. "I remember Peyton asking me about football stories. I said, 'When you grow up, you'll make your own football stories.' I didn't know the little rascal was going to have me concerned about my undefeated season."
As reported three weeks ago, Csonka's side of 1972 are the only team to go through an entire NFL season undefeated. Since then, the Colts have gone three steps closer to matching that record, and even bettering it as the first side to do it in a 16-game regular season. It is not just the pressure of going perfect that weighs on coach Tony Dungy's mind, though. He must consider whether to keep his stars in throughout the largely meaningless matches of the next month, risking injury and burnout, or whether to rest them ahead of the playoffs, risking them being rusty. Lose a match with a team full of reserves and you miss your place in history, but could have a better chance come the Super Bowl, which the Colts have not won since they were based in Baltimore back in 1971. Go perfect and win the Super Bowl and go down as one of the best teams in history. It has its attractions. Dungy says he has not made up his mind on using his stars yet, and has his eyes firmly focussed on this fixture.
Star players
Matt Jones #18, WR/TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
It wasn't Jones' mediocre play as quarterback at university in Arkansas last season that convinced the Jags to take him in the first round of the draft, it was his phenomenal physique. At 6ft6, 242lbs and with the ability to run 40 yards in 4.37secs, Jones is a wide receiver in a tight end's body. Jacksonville have lines him up as a receiver, at the end of the line and as a blocker in motion in the backfield. The only thing he hasn't done so far is throw a pass, and the likelihood of that has risen since Leftwich's injury.
Marvin Harrison #88, WR, Indianapolis Colts
At some point in this game, Manning will throw a "fade" pass high into the corner of the endzone and Harrison, who has caught 108 similar passes in his career so far, with muscle his way out of reach of a defender to haul it in. Harrison is the leader of Indy's three-pronged receiving corps. Reggie Wayne may have better speed and Brandon Stokley pops up on shallow routes to pick apart defenses concentrating on the two men outside but Harrison has both speed and the physical presence to be arguably among the top 10 receivers ever in the league. Last week he became the 12th NFL player to pass 12,000 career receiving yards and there is plenty of time left.
What to look for
Jones could play a role in picking apart the Indy defense, who have struggled against quick passes to the outside at times this season, but the likelihood of completing those timing passes takes a dip with Leftwich out of action. Garrard is likely to try and scramble to get himself out of trouble, but that just plays into the hands of the Colts speedy linebackers, including Cato June.
In September, Jacksonville took a page out of New England's book by putting everything into pass coverage rather than pressuring the steel-nerved Manning at the line. If they do the same again expect running back Edgerrin James, who ran for 128 yards in that game, to have another big day.
Tip
No one else has managed to stop them this season. Jacksonville might slow them but their offense will be unable to match that performance, Indianapolis coming out on top 24-14.
(Season so far 4-3)
Interesting trivia
Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio, a former linebacker with 11 years' NFL experience, is the second-youngest head coach in the league, behind Tampa Bay's John Gruden. As a motivational tool last season, he put an axe in the locker room along with a tree stump, exhorting the team to "Keep Chopping Wood". Pro Bowl punter Chris Hanson slashed his leg while swinging at the stump.
In the Super Bowl era, only three teams have gone 12-0, and all have gone on to win the title. Miami were the first in 1972, Denver went 14-2 before breezing through the post season in 1998 and the 1985 Chicago Bears lost only to Miami in week 13 on their way to winning Super Bowl XX.
The Jaguars were only formed in 1995 but they are the oldest team in the AFC not to play in the Super Bowl. The other two not to have made it that far are Houston, who joined the league in 2002, and Cleveland, who were reincarnated in 2001. Detroit, formed as the Portsmouth Spartans in 1930, are the oldest team in the NFC not to have gone to the big dance.
Linebacker Mike Peterson, the Jaguars' leading tackler so far this season with 77, was drafted by the Colts in the second round in 1999 but was allowed to leave as a free agent in 2003.
NFLBriefing.com
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Alltel Stadium
TV: CBS (US) / Sky Sports Xtra (UK)
Why it matters
This could be the Colts' last meaningful game until 14 January, but the Jaguars won't provide them with the sort of easy victory most of their schedule has offered so far. Indianapolis just need a win here (it would be their 13th straight this season) to secure a first round bye and home field advantage as far as the AFC Championship game.
However, AFC South cohabitants Jacksonville also have their eyes on the playoffs and, in a packed race for the two wildcard places for best runners-up, every victory counts, even though they face far easier opposition than this in the final three weeks of the season.
These two sides met for the first time this season in September, the Colts winning a bad-tempered encounter 10-3. That game did as much as any other to build the reputation of the Indy defense, for years the poor relations to the firework-filled offensive machine. They are second in the list of fewest points conceded this year with 162, at a miserly average of 13.5 per game. Quarterback Peyton Manning failed to fire in that match, but has returned to his best since. In the last nine games, the Colts have averaged 35.4 points.
Jacksonville, though, still possess one of the league's best defenses, currently ranked fifth in the league for least yards conceded, with their pass defense still a speciality. Unfortunately, they have been forced to adjust to a new trigger man after Byron Leftwich was ruled out for a month with an ankle injury. Back-up David Garrard led them to victory over lowly Cleveland last week and has performed ably while deputising in the past. He is a better runner than Leftwich and has a strong arm but can struggle for accuracy, which makes him more liable to mistakes.
Team talking points
"I know Archie Manning and met Peyton when he was just a little guy," former Miami Dolphin Larry Csonka told Sports Illustrated recently. "I remember Peyton asking me about football stories. I said, 'When you grow up, you'll make your own football stories.' I didn't know the little rascal was going to have me concerned about my undefeated season."
As reported three weeks ago, Csonka's side of 1972 are the only team to go through an entire NFL season undefeated. Since then, the Colts have gone three steps closer to matching that record, and even bettering it as the first side to do it in a 16-game regular season. It is not just the pressure of going perfect that weighs on coach Tony Dungy's mind, though. He must consider whether to keep his stars in throughout the largely meaningless matches of the next month, risking injury and burnout, or whether to rest them ahead of the playoffs, risking them being rusty. Lose a match with a team full of reserves and you miss your place in history, but could have a better chance come the Super Bowl, which the Colts have not won since they were based in Baltimore back in 1971. Go perfect and win the Super Bowl and go down as one of the best teams in history. It has its attractions. Dungy says he has not made up his mind on using his stars yet, and has his eyes firmly focussed on this fixture.
Star players
Matt Jones #18, WR/TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
It wasn't Jones' mediocre play as quarterback at university in Arkansas last season that convinced the Jags to take him in the first round of the draft, it was his phenomenal physique. At 6ft6, 242lbs and with the ability to run 40 yards in 4.37secs, Jones is a wide receiver in a tight end's body. Jacksonville have lines him up as a receiver, at the end of the line and as a blocker in motion in the backfield. The only thing he hasn't done so far is throw a pass, and the likelihood of that has risen since Leftwich's injury.
Marvin Harrison #88, WR, Indianapolis Colts
At some point in this game, Manning will throw a "fade" pass high into the corner of the endzone and Harrison, who has caught 108 similar passes in his career so far, with muscle his way out of reach of a defender to haul it in. Harrison is the leader of Indy's three-pronged receiving corps. Reggie Wayne may have better speed and Brandon Stokley pops up on shallow routes to pick apart defenses concentrating on the two men outside but Harrison has both speed and the physical presence to be arguably among the top 10 receivers ever in the league. Last week he became the 12th NFL player to pass 12,000 career receiving yards and there is plenty of time left.
What to look for
Jones could play a role in picking apart the Indy defense, who have struggled against quick passes to the outside at times this season, but the likelihood of completing those timing passes takes a dip with Leftwich out of action. Garrard is likely to try and scramble to get himself out of trouble, but that just plays into the hands of the Colts speedy linebackers, including Cato June.
In September, Jacksonville took a page out of New England's book by putting everything into pass coverage rather than pressuring the steel-nerved Manning at the line. If they do the same again expect running back Edgerrin James, who ran for 128 yards in that game, to have another big day.
Tip
No one else has managed to stop them this season. Jacksonville might slow them but their offense will be unable to match that performance, Indianapolis coming out on top 24-14.
(Season so far 4-3)
Interesting trivia
Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio, a former linebacker with 11 years' NFL experience, is the second-youngest head coach in the league, behind Tampa Bay's John Gruden. As a motivational tool last season, he put an axe in the locker room along with a tree stump, exhorting the team to "Keep Chopping Wood". Pro Bowl punter Chris Hanson slashed his leg while swinging at the stump.
In the Super Bowl era, only three teams have gone 12-0, and all have gone on to win the title. Miami were the first in 1972, Denver went 14-2 before breezing through the post season in 1998 and the 1985 Chicago Bears lost only to Miami in week 13 on their way to winning Super Bowl XX.
The Jaguars were only formed in 1995 but they are the oldest team in the AFC not to play in the Super Bowl. The other two not to have made it that far are Houston, who joined the league in 2002, and Cleveland, who were reincarnated in 2001. Detroit, formed as the Portsmouth Spartans in 1930, are the oldest team in the NFC not to have gone to the big dance.
Linebacker Mike Peterson, the Jaguars' leading tackler so far this season with 77, was drafted by the Colts in the second round in 1999 but was allowed to leave as a free agent in 2003.
NFLBriefing.com
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